We analyze what Spanish needs in the upcoming tournaments to aim for a return to the top of the ATP ranking, ahead of Sinner and Djokovic.
The struggle to be world number 1 will unfold at the 2024 US Open, but Carlos Alcaraz could gain ground next week in Cincinnati, where a good performance could bring him closer in the ATP ranking to a Jannik Sinner who is not going through the best physical and mental moments.
Weeks of great competitive intensity are approaching in the tennis world, with the best players gathering at the two key events of the North American hardcourt tour. Much will be at stake both at the ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati 2024 and at the 2024 US Open, one of them being to determine who emerges from New York as the number 1 in the ATP ranking.
The resignation of Novak Djokovic to participate in the Ohio event and his inability to earn points in Flushing Meadows rule him out of a contest in which Carlos Alcaraz has much to say against a Jannik Sinner currently not at his best. The Italian may extend his lead in Cincinnati, but the way he lost in Montreal and his subsequent statements raise concerns about him, which the Spaniard could capitalize on to make a statement.
– This is the current situation in the ATP ranking and the scenarios that could unfold in Cincinnati
- Jannik Sinner: 8,770 points – Will defend 10 points in Cincinnati
- Novak Djokovic: 8,460 points – Will lose 1,000 points from Cincinnati and won’t be able to gain in the US Open
- Carlos Alcaraz: 7,950 points – Will defend 600 points in Cincinnati
It’s evident that Djokovic is out of contention in a fight where he will not pay particular attention at this stage of his career. If he were to win at Flushing Meadows, he would enter the final stretch of the year with a chance to compete for the top spot, but in the short run, the Serbian won’t occupy that privileged position. Hence, it’s advisable to focus on the current and potential differences between Sinner and Alcaraz.
The Italian is favorably positioned to remain as number 1 for several weeks since he has hardly anything to defend in Ohio, and last year in New York, he only reached the round of 16. His margin for point gain is significant, unlike what Carlos presents, who was a finalist in Cincinnati and a semifinalist in the US Open.
– Alcaraz will enter the US Open 2024 as number 2 or 3 in the world, but he can get very close to Sinner
However, the current context of both players suggests there might be more of a battle than the numbers imply. Jannik Sinner is going through a very rough patch due to likely hip discomfort and certain mental issues affecting his performance in Montreal. He himself has stated that he won’t be able to compete at 100% in Ohio, so an early defeat there would open opportunities for the Spaniard, should he claim the title.
In an ideal scenario for Carlos Alcaraz, he would head into the US Open 2024 with 8,350 points, while Jannik Sinner would have 8,770 points if he were to lose early in the American event. With that points difference, the Spaniard would have significant chances to reclaim the number 1 ATP ranking at the 2024 US Open. It’s clear that Carlos doesn’t solely depend on himself to return as number 1 in the short term but rather to exert pressure on a Sinner who hasn’t displayed the level of play and consistency of previous months.
