Jannik Sinner’s Canadian Open title defence came to a sudden halt on Saturday, the world No 1 beaten by Andrey Rublev in three sets.
In the absence of Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, Sinner was a heavy favourite for the title – though his recurring hip issue again seemed to hinder him in Montreal.
The Italian was comfortably clear as the world No 1, though there will be a significant points shift this week.
We look at how the No 1 battle between the top three may pan out over the next week or so.
As it stands
Sinner was the defending champion at the Canadian Open, having won his first Masters 1000 title at the event in Toronto twelve months ago.
That victory earned him 1,000 ranking points but, with only 200 points available for quarter-finalists at the tournament, he will now drop 800 points.
Currently on 9,570 points, Sinner will be down to 8,770 when the rankings update – decreasing his gap over Djokovic and Alcaraz at least temporarily.
Having skipped the event last year as well, Djokovic’s points remain unchanged, with the Serbian set to be still sitting on 8,460 points.
However, Alcaraz will also drop points – though narrowly less than Sinner.
The Spaniard will lose 180 ranking points after withdrawing this year, slipping from 8,130 points to 7,950 points.
All eyes on Cincinnati
Attention now turns to the second Masters 1000 event of the summer in Cincinnati, and whether Sinner will play or not.
The Italian said it was “not 100%” that he would feature in the tournament after his defeat to Rublev, though it could still prove to be a big week for him regarding his stay as the No 1.
Sinner was beaten in round two a year ago meaning that, should he decide to withdraw, he will only drop 45 ranking points.
And, if he is fit enough to play, it will be easy for him to earn ranking points and strengthen his position as the world’s leading male player.
Either way, his case is only helped by the fact that Djokovic will not be defending his title.
The Serbian is still resting after his Olympic triumph in Paris and will not compete until his US Open title defence at the end of August.
That means he will drop 1,000 ranking points and fall to 7,460 points – once again well behind Sinner.
If he were to win the title, the Italian would lead Djokovic by over 2,000 points, though that is a big ‘if’ in the circumstances.
Alcaraz is perhaps the player to keep an eye on in Cincinnati with the Spaniard back in action for the first time since the Olympics, and arguably the favourite for the title.
The world No 1 reached the final a year ago, earning 600 points for doing so – so does have a chunk of points to defend himself.
But with Djokovic out, there is a strong chance for Alcaraz to finish the tournament as world No 2 – and victory would move him 400 points closer to Sinner and within striking distance of No 1.
